Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
